The presentation for Texas Weekly's list of the most competitive races in Texas is lifted from the inventors of the federal terror watch, ranking districts by the threat to each incumbent (or incumbent party, in the case of open districts) and giving each group garish colors. Yellow means there's trouble on the sidewalk. Orange is trouble on the front porch. Red is trouble walking in the door.
Changes for the week of September 20: Libertarian Mike Smith dropped out of the HD-78 race, leaving Rep. Joe Moody, D-El Paso, and Republican Dee Margo in a rematch with no siphoning of votes from one or the other. We're moving that to Orange until it sorts out. Likewise, a new third-party player — the Texas Republican House Committee, which had no money at mid-year — showed up in the HD-45 race between Rep. Patrick Rose, D-Dripping Springs, and Republican Jason Isaac with a web campaign attacking the incumbent. Keep it Yellow, but watch it.
As always, incumbents' names are shown in bold.