Texas Weekly's Hot List for September 27, 2010

The presentation for Texas Weekly's list of the most competitive races in Texas is lifted from the inventors of the federal terror watch, ranking districts by the threat to each incumbent (or incumbent party, in the case of open districts) and giving each group garish colors. Yellow means there's trouble on the sidewalk. Orange is trouble on the front porch. Red is trouble walking in the door.

Changes for the week of September 27: Mark Homer (HD-3) and Diana Maldonado (HD-52) move from Red to Orange. They're not out of trouble, but they've got colleagues who are facing greater heat. Carol Kent (HD-102), Robert Miklos (HD-101) and Chris Turner (HD-96) migrate up to Red from Orange, based on what we're hearing from consultants on both sides. Coincidentally, the two downgraded races both have three candidates in them; none of the three upgraded risks has a Libertarian on board to — in the conventional thinking — help the Democrat by pulling votes from the Republican.

As always, incumbents' names are shown in bold.

Texas Weekly's Hot List